Tuesday June 27, 2017
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May

Qld Labour Force


Written by David Marler
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Queensland Labour Force Statistics

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All data based on Qld Treasury and Trade:

IconQldGov

Qld Labour Force

IconQldGov

Qld Labour Force Regions

  Qld SA4 Map

 

April 2014 - Unemployment

 

 Qld Employment FTPT v UE Trend

Trend: This graph shows the Queensland monthly change in FTE & PTE to Qld unemployment rate.

For April, in trend terms, 0.0% FTE were created, PTE rose by 0.9% but unemployment rose to 6.3% from adjusted 6.2%.

 

Qld Employment FT PT v UE SA

Seasonally Adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld Unemployment rate.

In seasonally adjusted terms, FTE rose by 0.1%, PTE rose by 0.4% and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1% to 6.3%.

 

April 2014 Labour Force Unemployment Rate Trend 

Trend: Qld Employment growth to Australia growth.

 

Qld Labour Force Change Vs Aus Trend

Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's Labour Force Vs Australia's Labour Force

In terms of trend Labour force Australia rose by 16,200 persons and Queensland by 9,100 persons.

 

SA Qld Participation Rate Vs Aus

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Another slight increase in the seasonally adjusted participation rate up from 66.3% to 66.5%. Australia's fell slightly from 64.8% to 64.7%.

 

Qld Participation Rate Vs Aus Trend

Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

A slight rise in trend participation rate up from 66.0% to 66.3%. Australia's rose slightly from 64.7% to 64.8%.

 

Qld Job Creation Employment FT vs PT SA

Seasonally Adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Qld gained 1200 FTE and gained 3,200 PTE for a total of 4,400 jobs for April.

 

Qld Job Creation Employment FT, PT Trend

Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

In trend, Qld gained 500 FTE and gained 6,500 PTE for a total of 7000 jobs for April.

 

Qld Regional Unemployment FN WBB SC Trend

Trend: This graph shows the three worst unemployment regions of Far North Queensland, Wide Bay-Burnett and Sunshine Coast against average Qld Unemploymnt rate. Queensland Treasury now using updated SA4 (Statistical Area, Level 4 (ASGS 2011 edition)). As a result former "Far North Qld" becomes "Cairns".

Ipswich remains the worrying upwards trend at 8.7%.

 

Jan 2013 Labour Force Unemployment Rate By Statistical Region

Labour force unemployment rate by statistical region. Horizontal line is Qld average unemployment. From January 2014, Qld Treasury began to use the new SA4 data (Statistical Area, Level 4 (ASGS 2011 edition)).

 

Jan 2014 Annual change Employment Rate By Statistical Region

Trend: Annual change in employment by statistical region. Horizontal line is Qld average. From January 2014, Qld Treasury began to use the new SA4 data (Statistical Area, Level 4 (ASGS 2011 edition)).

March 2014 - Unemployment

 

For March, in trend terms, FTE fell 0.1%, PTE rose by 0.8% but unemployment remained at 6.1%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, FTE fell 0.1%, PTE rose by 2.0% and the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.1%.

In trend, Qld lost 1,100 FTE but gained 5,300 PTE for a total of 4200 jobs for March.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Qld lost 1,900 FTE but gained 13,900 PTE for a total of 12,000 jobs for March.

A slight rise in trend participation rate up from 65.7% to 66.0%. Australia's remained the same at 64.7%.

A slight rise in the seasonally adjusted participation rate up from 66.1% to 66.3%. Australia's fell slightly from 64.8% to 64.7%.

In terms of trend Labour force we saw the traditional school leaver February bump as Australia rose by 17,400 persons and Queensland by 6,100.

 

February 2014 - Unemployment up but we're the strongest

As the unemployment rate rose in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms, Treasurer Tim Nicholls' team took to Twitter to claim Queensland as the strongest in employment growth amongst the states and territories.

However, once again he failed to disclose the high number of part time jobs (PTE).

His team also tweeted that Queensland's participation rate was higher than the national average. As the graphs show below, that's always been the case. No victory there.
 

 Nicholls claims Qld is the strongest

Nicholls claims Qld participation rate above national average

In a nutshell, the February unemployment story consisted of rises in the participation rates & labour force but there were not enough jobs created to curb Queensland's rising UE rate.

In seasonally adjusted terms for Feb, FTE rose 0.2%, PTE rose 4.2% & the unemployment rate rose to 6.2%

For February, in trend terms FTE fell 0.1%, PTE rose by 0.3% resulting in an unemployment rate of 6.1% (revised up from 5.9% to 6.0% for Jan).

In trend terms, Qld lost 1,100 FTE, gained 2,000 PTE for a net gain of 900 jobs.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Qld created 2,700 FTE & 28,100 PTE for a total of 30,800 jobs for February.

In terms of trend Labour force we saw the traditional school leaver February bump as Australia rose by 15,700 persons and Queensland by 3000.

A bump also in the seasonally adjusted participation rate up from 65.3% to 66.1%. Australia's also rose from 64.6% to 64.8%.

Feb regional unemployment data: Ipswich 8.5%, Wide-Bay 8.3%, Cairns 8.1% & Sunshine 6.1%.

Three largest job losses by statistical region: Wide Bay 8,800 jobs, Logan- Beaudesert 7,500 jobs & Cairns 3,700 jobs.

Cairns has the worst youth unemployment rate in Queensland of 20.5% according to a national study by The Brotherhood of St Laurence.

 

January 2014 - Stretch targets

We've come full circle.

After hearing all the excuses possible for Queensland's rising unemployment figures, from the carbon tax to 'green shoots' Treasurer Tim Nicholls declared that asset sales were the way to arrest the rise.

The LNP's pre-election promise of 4% unemployment in six years (2018) was now declared by Nicholls as a 'stretch target'.

He also told the media the government had more work to do. What exactly that entails, remains to be seen.
   Labour Force Nicholls More Work To Do
In trend terms for Jan, the percentage change for FTE was -0.2%, PTE 0.0% & unemployment remained at 5.9% after being revised up from 5.7% in Dec.

Seasonally adjusted, the percentage change for FTE was -1.5%, PTE -0.1% & unemployment rose to 6.1% from 5.9% in December.

Qld Labour Force fell by 1,400 (-0.1%) trend for January with Australia rising by 3,600 (0.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, Queensland lost 1,700 FTE, 10,000 PTE for a total loss of 11,700 jobs.

In trend terms Queensland lost 3,000 FTE, gained 300 PTE for an overall loss of 2,700 jobs.

Qld participation rate for trend is 65.5% (-0.1%) & seasonally adjusted is 65.2% (-0.3). Australian trend is 64.5% (-0.1%) & seasonally adjusted 64.5% (0%).

 

December 2013 - A state of part timers

Premier Campbell Newman's team once again took to Twitter to claim ownership of the fall in trend unemployment.

It was a sneaky grab.

In real terms, unemployment hadn't actually gone anywhere. The figure for November had been revised upward by Treasury from 5.7% to 5.8%.
  Dec Newman Victory

December's figure came in at 5.7% and as a consquence, the rate had fallen.

As Treasury noted in its information brief:

'Queensland's trend unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in December, from an upwardly revised 5.8% in November.'
IconQldGov

'Qld Treasury & Trade: December 2013 information brief'


Technically, the Premier's Team is correct but does rhetoric around rubbery figures actually help Queenslanders find work?

Dec 2013 Employment Trend  
The second figure championed in the media was the creation of 35,200 jobs in Queensland for 2013.

On the surface it sounds promising. However, these were all part-time jobs.

As the data shows, we've seen 2013 become the year of the part-timer as all gains in FTE fell away.

Treasury noted;

'Over the year to December, trend employment grew 35,200 persons, accounting for around three quarters of national jobs growth. This was driven by a 38,800 increase in part-time employment, while full-time employment fell 3,600.'

Creation of PTE without a balance of FTE will lead to an under-employment problem. As the Premier's team also noted on Twitter, Queensland's property investment was leading the way. However, it's unlikely people will be able to pay mortgages on PTE pay over the long term.

When pressed on camera, Premier Newman conceded the need to create FTE to ABC News Queensland's Chris O'Brien;

"Of course, everybody would prefer to see more full-time jobs. My feeling is that the big growth area has been in the last year the tourism industry and that does use a lot of casual and part-time labour."

As the graphs below show, we once again see the influence of rises in PTE on the overall unemployment rate.

For December, in seasonally adjusted terms, Queensland lost 600 FTE jobs and lost  5700 PTE for a total loss of 6600 jobs.

In trend terms, Queensland lost 2100 FTE jobs and gained 4400 PTE jobs for a total gain of 2300 jobs.

Percentage trend employment change for December was -0.1% FTE and 0.6% PTE. Unemployment rate was 5.7%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, FTE percentage change was also -0.1% and PTE -0.8%. The unemployment rate rose two notches to 5.9%

The trend participation rate fell a notch to 65.8% as did Australia's to 64.7%.

Qld Regions: Treasury noted that Qld's highest unemployment rate area Wide Bay-Burnett (8.5% trend) had the lowest participation rate with 52.9%. It also lost 7,400 jobs for December.

Five regions are above the Qld average unemployment rate of 5.9% trend.

 

Qld Unemployment was revised up by treasury to 5.8% & fell to 5.7% for December

 In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate was adjusted upward to 5.7% before rising to 5.9% for December

 Qld's highest unemployment region is Wide Bay-Burnett at 8.5% trend.

 

November 2013 - Newman claims victory

Campbell Newman claimed victory for a 20 month return to second best unemployment rate in the nation.

However, the fall in both trend and seasonally adjusted rates was due to a large part time job surge as full time employment positions slid away.
  Nov Newman Victory 

While the numbers give great cheer to LNP supporters, the long term effects of under-employment remain of social and economic concern.

In one of its main findings, Qld Treasury & Trade noted; "Over the year to November, trend employment grew 40,100 persons (1.7%), led by a 38,800 increase in part -time employment, while full-time employment rose only 1,300."

In seasonally adjusted terms, Queensland lost 5,500 FTE jobs and gained 10,200 PTE for a gain of 4700 jobs. In trend terms, Queensland lost 600 FTE jobs and gained 4,900 PTE jobs for a total gain of 4300 jobs.

The trend participation rate remained the same at 65.9% while Australia's participation rate also remained at 64.8%.

In trend monthly percentage change, 0% FTE were created while PTE was 0.7%. The trend to part time employment pulled the unemployment rate down a notch to 5.7%.

Seasonally adjusted, the FTE change was -0.3% as PTE rose 1.5% resulting in Qld's unemployment rate falling 3 notches to 5.6%.

 

October 2013 -

October 2013 - Flat As : Queensland's unemployment remained flat at 5.9% in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms, after being revised down from the previoius month.

The participation rate rose a notch from 65.9% to 66% whilst Australia's participation rate fell two notches to 64.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Queensland lost 11,200 FTE jobs & gained 10,600 PTE for a total loss of 600 jobs.

In trend terms, Queensland gained 1,900 FTE jobs & also gained 2,300 PTE jobs for a total gain of 4200 jobs.

Perhaps Batman has the answer to Queensland high unemployment?
   Batman,Newman & Nicholls

 Qld Unemployment remained at 5.9% both trend & in seasonally adjusted terms.

Qld's highest unemployment region is Wide Bay-Burnett at 8.9% trend.

 

September 2013 - In the woods

 

September 2013 - In the woods: It's the mid point in the Newman Government and treasurer Tim Nicholls has told Ten News Qld that we're not out of the wood.

Who put us in the woods?

When the LNP took office in March 2012, the unemployment rate was 5.5% and is currently 6.0% in trend terms.
   Tim Nicholls
Seasonally adjusted, 5.5% in March 2012 and now 5.9%.

The participation rate was 67% in March 2012 and now rests on 65.9% in trend terms.

For September, Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in trend terms.

Once again Treasurer Nicholls has reached for the best seasonally adjusted figures and pointed to the 17,000 full time jobs created.  As we know from the chart below, SA is erractic having lost 11,100 jobs in August.

In trend terms, Qld created 4200 FTE jobs and lost 1100 PTE resulting in a net creation of 3,100.

The worst affected region is the Wide Bay-Burnett area up a notch to 8.8%.

Qld Unemployment fell a notch from 6.0% to 5.9% in seasonally adjusted terms

In trend terms, Qld Unemployment remained unchanged at 6.0%

Qld's highest unemployment region is Wide Bay-Burnett with 8.8%

 

August 2013 - A Pair of Sixes

 

A Pair of Sixes: Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rose a notch from 5.9% to 6.0% where it joined another 6% for unemployment in trend terms.

No direct reaction from the Newman team on that.

Instead, Treasurer Tim Nicholls provided a smokescreen by boasting the lowest 'unforeseen expenditure' in 15 years
  Qld Emp Tim Nicholls
What does that mean?  I was able to quantify with his office which stated 'Higher than expected long service leave and superannuation payments.'

In other words, all those public servant job cuts have reduced amounts that the Queensland Government has had to fork out in terms of super & long-service leave.

It impresses the LNP faithful, but it wont fool you and I.

So where will the jobs come from?

Chief economist for business research company BIS Shrapnel, Dr Frank Gelper told a conference in Brisbane this week about the problem in the mining industry.

"The problem is jobs. We employ a lot more people in the production phase, as opposed to construction phase."

While he didn't predict a recession, he believed unemployment would continue to rise  over the 6% mark and in the short-term bleak times are ahead.

"I’m not wildly optimistic about the prospects for Queensland."

In trend terms, the Queensland participation rate again remained unchanged at 65.8%. Perhaps the long fall since the Queensland election has abated. Australia's participation rate remained at 65.2%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Qld lost 11,100 full time jobs (FTE) and 6000 part time jobs resulting in an overall jobs loss of 5,100.

However, in trend terms the Newman Government created 4200 FTE, lost 1100 PTE jobs to arrive at a figure of 3,100 net job creation.

In seasonally adjusted terms, FTE jobs created represented -0.7% whilst PTE jobs accounted for 0.9%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell to 6.0%.

However, in trend terms FTE job creation rose 0.3% but fell -0.2% in PTE terms. Overall the trend unemployment remained at 6.0%.

The highest unemployment region is the Wide Bay-Burnett with a record high 8.7%

 

July 2013 - Who is right?


July 2013 - Who is right about Qld unemployment figures, Premier Newman or Prime Minister Kevin Rudd?


Premier Campbell Newman's team excitedly took to twitter to claim Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was "wrong" on Queensland's latest unemployment figures.

The tweet was based around this article splashed across the front page of The Australian.

(Read headline out loud in your best Mediawatch voice over)
   Today's headline in The Australian says it all. "Kevin Rudd wrong as QLD jobs jump
Kevin Rudd wrong as Queensland jobs jump

'Kevin Rudd wrong as Queensland jobs jump'


However, the PM had been talking about Qld trend unemployment & and jobs growth which rose to 6.1% and zero respectively.

Journalists, David Crowe and Adam Creighton had neglected to mention anything about the trend terms and solely quoted seasonally adjusted figures which showed unemployment fell from 6.3% to 5.9% and 18,400 jobs were created.

Apples and oranges with a dash of political spin.

I pointed this out to the Premier's Team over twitter but there was, of course, no response.

I wasn't the only one to notice.

Greg Jericho picked up on it straight away and writes a very good explanation of the difference in terms. 

In my experience it is best to quote both, however, I wont soak up your time with my explanation as Greg's knowledge is far superior to mine.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate hits 5.7% in June

Greg Jericho: 'Election 2013: Day 5 (or how to put spin on a front page)'


I have documented the historical trend and seasonally adjusted data below for jobs growth and unemployment in Queensland. As you will notice, SA tends to be erratic.

In trend terms, the Queensland participation rate remained flat at 65.8% indicating that no workers had returned to the work force to correct the overall downward slide. Australia's participation rate fell a notch to 65.2%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, Qld created 14300 full time jobs (FTE) and 4100 part time jobs resulting in an overall jobs creation of 18400.

However, in trend terms the Newman Government created 2500 FTE jobs and lost 2500 PTE jobs resulting in an overall zero job creation.

In seasonally adjusted terms, FTE jobs created represented 0.9% whilst PTE jobs accounted for  0.6%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell to 5.9%.

However, in trend terms FTE job creation rose 0.1% but fell -0.4% in PTE terms as Newman's part time employment bubble continued to deteriorate. Overall the trend unemployment rose a notch to 6.1%.

For the regions, Qld's worst unemployment area was Wide Bay-Burnett up 2 notches to 8.6% trend with 1000 jobs lost.

The biggest loss of jobs was South & East BSD with 8500 lost.

Moral of the story: Next time unemployment figures are quoted, take note of what is being stated, seasonally adjusted or trend terms before you pop the champagne corks, Premier's Team.

 

June 2013 - Newman's PTE Jobs Bubble Has Burst

June 2013 - Newman's PTE Jobs Bubble Has Burst


Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has blamed the sharp rise in the state's unemployment rate to 6.4% seasonally adjusted on the Federal Labor Government.  He accused Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard of creating uncertainty.

"The uncertainty that he delivered back three years ago with the mining tax and then Julia Gillard with the carbon tax that wasn't going to happen have really hurt the mining industry."
   Premier Campbell Newman has blamed Federal Labor for the sharp rise in Queensland’s unemployment.

However, economists have pointed to the downturn in mining sector investment and cuts to public sector spending.  They also cite the loss of large numbers of part time employment (PTE).

Statistics provided by Queensland Treasury tell the story. The warm season of September 2012 to May 2013 saw huge gains in PTE. Up until now, this kept the lid on Queensland's unemployment rate. However, there have been huge losses in June.

In seasonally adjusted terms, 4800 full time jobs (FTE) were created but 13700 PTE were lost.  This resulted in a net loss of 8,900 jobs.

In trend employment terms, 500 FTE were lost and no PTE created. A net loss of 500 jobs.

The participation rate remained steady at 65.8%.  Traditionally, Queensland has had a higher than national average PR rate.  It has been in decline since the March 2012 election.

In the short term, sharp rises in PTE creates an underemployment problem which in turn creates a revenue shortage for the government. The long term effects can be less people working at full capacity to support an aging Queensland population.

After the public sector worker purge, some workers may still be living off their redundancy settlements and may yet attempt to re-enter the workforce.

Others may have given up entirely or left the state to find work elsewhere.




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